diff --git a/src/review/outcomes-wire.ts b/src/review/outcomes-wire.ts
index b7b25b223..f828633aa 100644
--- a/src/review/outcomes-wire.ts
+++ b/src/review/outcomes-wire.ts
@@ -429,10 +429,28 @@ export async function recordPrOutcome(
     return;
 
   const decision = merged ? "merged" : "closed";
+  const targetId = reviewAuditTargetId(repoFullName, pr.number);
+  // The bot's own recordTerminalActionOutcome writes the pr_outcome row first (right after the merge/close
+  // mutation); GitHub then delivers the `closed` webhook for the SAME action, landing here second. Probe for
+  // the existing row before touching the counter so loopover_pr_outcomes_total is incremented exactly once per
+  // real outcome — mirroring recordTerminalActionOutcome's own guard (#10332).
+  try {
+    const existing = await env.DB.prepare(
+      "SELECT 1 AS x FROM review_audit WHERE target_id = ? AND event_type = 'pr_outcome' LIMIT 1",
+    )
+      .bind(targetId)
+      .first<{ x: number }>();
+    if (existing) return;
+  } catch (error) {
+    // An unreadable ledger must not suppress a genuinely-new outcome — a duplicate row is strictly better than a
+    // lost one (fleet export + computeGateEval both read the LATEST pr_outcome per target). Fail open, like the
+    // direct path.
+    console.warn(JSON.stringify({ event: "pr_outcome_webhook_probe_error", message: errorMessage(error).slice(0, 160) }));
+  }
+
   // Observability (#reviews-dashboard): realized human outcome (merged vs closed) for the Grafana panel + as the
   // ground truth to compare against the engine's gate verdicts.
   incr("loopover_pr_outcomes_total", { outcome: decision });
-  const targetId = reviewAuditTargetId(repoFullName, pr.number);
 
   await appendReviewAudit(env, {
     project: repoFullName.slice(0, 200),
diff --git a/test/unit/outcomes-wire.test.ts b/test/unit/outcomes-wire.test.ts
index 3a2fbd15d..d22ae9ced 100644
--- a/test/unit/outcomes-wire.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/outcomes-wire.test.ts
@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ import {
   type PlannedAgentAction,
 } from "../../src/settings/agent-actions";
 import { recordAuditEvent } from "../../src/db/repositories";
+import { renderMetrics, resetMetrics } from "../../src/selfhost/metrics";
 import { upsertRepoFocusManifest } from "../../src/signals/focus-manifest-loader";
 import type { GitHubPullRequestPayload } from "../../src/types";
 import { createTestEnv } from "../helpers/d1";
@@ -267,6 +268,46 @@ describe("recordTerminalActionOutcome — webhook-independent ground truth (#882
     expect(await reviewAuditRows(env, "pr_outcome")).toHaveLength(1);
   });
 
+  it("counts loopover_pr_outcomes_total exactly ONCE in the realistic terminal-action-first ordering (#10332)", async () => {
+    // Production ordering: the bot's own recordTerminalActionOutcome writes first (right after the merge/close
+    // mutation), THEN GitHub delivers the `closed` webhook and recordPrOutcome runs for the SAME PR. Before the
+    // fix, the webhook path always incremented the counter, so one real outcome was counted twice.
+    const env = createTestEnv();
+    resetMetrics();
+    await recordTerminalActionOutcome(env, "owner/repo", 42, "closed");
+    await recordPrOutcome(env, "pull_request", {
+      action: "closed",
+      repository: { name: "repo", full_name: "owner/repo", owner: { login: "owner" } },
+      pull_request: pullRequestPayload({ number: 42 }),
+      sender: { login: "loopover[bot]", type: "Bot" },
+    });
+    const counter = (await renderMetrics())
+      .split("\n")
+      .find((l) => l.startsWith('loopover_pr_outcomes_total{outcome="closed"}'));
+    expect(counter).toBe('loopover_pr_outcomes_total{outcome="closed"} 1'); // once total, not twice
+    expect(await reviewAuditRows(env, "pr_outcome")).toHaveLength(1); // and the row stays deduplicated too
+  });
+
+  it("recordPrOutcome fails OPEN when its idempotency probe throws — a lost outcome is worse than a duplicate (#10332)", async () => {
+    const env = createTestEnv();
+    const warn = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => undefined);
+    const realPrepare = env.DB.prepare.bind(env.DB);
+    // Fail ONLY the probe SELECT; every subsequent write (appendReviewAudit/audit_events) still runs for real.
+    vi.spyOn(env.DB, "prepare").mockImplementationOnce(() => {
+      throw new Error("ledger unavailable");
+    });
+    await recordPrOutcome(env, "pull_request", {
+      action: "closed",
+      repository: { name: "repo", full_name: "owner/repo", owner: { login: "owner" } },
+      pull_request: pullRequestPayload({ number: 77 }),
+      sender: { login: "maintainer", type: "User" },
+    });
+    (env.DB.prepare as unknown as { mockRestore: () => void }).mockRestore?.();
+    void realPrepare;
+    expect((await reviewAuditRows(env, "pr_outcome"))[0]).toMatchObject({ target_id: "owner/repo#77" });
+    expect(warn).toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+
   it("a failing audit_events mirror never breaks the canonical review_audit write", async () => {
     const env = createTestEnv();
     const warn = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => undefined);