Quantum-Inspired Fuel Prediction & Green Fleet Optimization Predict the fuel. Price the carbon. Optimize the fleet — auditably. Smart India Hackathon · Problem SIH26138
Q-Flow is an auditable decision-support platform that predicts vehicle/vessel fuel consumption, prices the lifecycle emissions and operating cost of each fuel pathway, and runs a quantum-inspired multi-objective optimizer to choose a feasible, Pareto-optimal fleet deployment — which vessels, at what speeds, on which fuels, with shore-power on or off. Every recommendation is benchmarked against NSGA-II / classical PSO under reproducible, seed-pinned scenarios.
The authoritative, code-verified reference lives in handbook/:
| Doc | What's inside |
|---|---|
| Master handbook | All chapters consolidated into one file — start here for hand-off/review |
| 00 · Start here | How the docs fit together, reading order |
| 01 · Overview | Problem, solution, guiding principles |
| 02 · Architecture | System + data-flow architecture |
| 03 · Backend | FastAPI app, modules, endpoints, engine |
| 04 · Frontend | React dashboard, pages, data layer |
| 05 · Models | Prediction, emissions, optimizer |
| 06 · Data & provenance | Datasets, governance, labels |
| 07 · Dev setup | Local install & run |
| 08 · Deployment | Render + Vercel, env, wiring |
| 09 · Security & integrity | CORS/auth, data-integrity rules |
To keep this honest, statements are tagged:
PS-FACT— taken from the SIH26138 problem statement.IMPLEMENTED— built and present in this codebase.VERIFIED METRIC— a measured number traceable to a recorded experiment (seed, dataset, model version).DATA-DEPENDENT— works when the datasets / live backend are present; degrades to representative data otherwise.DESIGN— a team architecture/design decision.REFERENCE— grounded in an external, cited source.
- Overview · 2. Problem statement · 3. Proposed solution · 4. Objectives
- Key features · 6. Innovation · 7. Users · 8. Workflow
- Architecture · 10. Tech stack · 11. The three models · 12. Multi-modal
- Project structure · 14. Installation · 15. Environment · 16. Running
- Deployment · 18. Benchmarking · 19. Testing · 20. Limitations
- Future scope · 22. References · 23. License
Shipping and road freight are under tightening decarbonization pressure (IMO GHG strategy, FuelEU Maritime, India's net-zero commitments). Operators must choose how to run a fleet — vessel mix, speed, fuel pathway, shore power — while balancing fuel, cost, and well-to-wake GHG, three objectives that genuinely conflict. Q-Flow turns that into a transparent, reproducible optimization.
Core principle DESIGN: build a scientifically credible engine behind a clear
dashboard — not a dashboard with an unproven algorithm hidden inside it. The
optimizer always calls the predictor and the emissions engine for every
candidate plan; it never optimizes against hard-coded fuel numbers.
One-sentence pitch: Given a cargo demand and a deadline, Q-Flow returns the Pareto-optimal set of feasible fleet deployments — vessels, speeds, fuels, shore-power — minimizing fuel, cost, and lifecycle GHG, benchmarked against NSGA-II.
SIH26138 — Quantum-inspired fuel prediction & green fleet optimization. PS-FACT
| Requirement | Q-Flow module | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Predict fuel consumption from operating state | Prediction model (§11) | IMPLEMENTED |
| Account for lifecycle (well-to-wake) emissions | Emissions & cost engine (§11) | IMPLEMENTED |
| Optimize fleet decisions across objectives | MO-QPSO optimizer (§11) | IMPLEMENTED |
| Quantum-inspired method | QPSO (hyperparameter + multi-objective search) | IMPLEMENTED |
| Auditable / reproducible | Provenance ledger, seed-pinned experiments | IMPLEMENTED |
Honesty note
DESIGN: QPSO (quantum-behaved PSO) is a classical metaheuristic inspired by quantum mechanics. This is not quantum machine learning and makes no quantum-speedup claim — it runs on classical hardware.
Three cooperating components turn a scenario into an explainable recommendation:
| # | Component | Implementation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fuel prediction | XGBoost (QPSO-tuned) + physics baseline | Predict voyage fuel for a vessel/vehicle + operating state |
| 2 | Emissions & cost engine | Deterministic, versioned, unit-tested | WtT / TtW / WtW GHG, fuel + shore-power cost (INR) |
| 3 | Fleet optimizer | MO-QPSO, mixed-variable decoder, constraint repair, Pareto archive | Search vessel/speed/fuel/shore-power decisions |
- Minimize voyage fuel/energy, operating cost (INR), and well-to-wake GHG simultaneously.
DESIGN - Keep every solution feasible (cargo demand met, deadline/schedule honored, range/compatibility respected).
IMPLEMENTED - Prove the quantum-inspired optimizer against NSGA-II and classical PSO on equal footing.
IMPLEMENTED - Make every number traceable — sourced factors, labeled data, recorded runs.
IMPLEMENTED
- 5.1 Multi-objective Pareto optimization — MO-QPSO returns a frontier of non-dominated plans (fuel ↔ cost ↔ GHG), with a balanced recommendation plus cost/GHG/fuel extremes tagged. The Optimization page renders a fixed cost-vs-WtW chart with a connected trade-off line, fuel-colored selectable plans, and a baseline marker. Returned recommendations must reduce both operating cost and WtW GHG versus baseline. Signed change values may be negative to represent reductions; absolute costs and emissions remain nonnegative.
IMPLEMENTED - 5.2 Predictor-in-the-loop — every candidate's fuel is predicted, then priced by the emissions engine; no hard-coded fuel.
IMPLEMENTED - 5.3 Independent benchmarking — NSGA-II / classical PSO vs MO-QPSO over multiple seeds: hypervolume, convergence curves, scalability sweep, box plots.
IMPLEMENTED - 5.4 Live, recomputable benchmarks — the Benchmarking page computes from the real engine on demand (cached, with a Recompute button).
IMPLEMENTED - 5.5 Provenance & experiment log — every field tagged measured/derived/synthetic; every run recorded with seed, dataset, model version, and port-pair route context.
IMPLEMENTED - 5.6 Multi-modal — the same optimizer core runs ship and road fleets, selectable from the UI.
IMPLEMENTED - 5.7 SEO & Accessibility — frontend configured with
robots.txt,sitemap.xml, and web manifest to support search indexing and modern web standards.IMPLEMENTED - 5.8 Independent Audit & Sandbox Mode — includes a transparent SIH26138 Audit Report and provides a read-only Sandbox / Demo Mode for reviewers to verify outputs using deterministic, representative scenarios without requiring admin credentials.
IMPLEMENTED - 5.9 Dashboard & user persistence — post-login Dashboard with simulation history and quick-start cards; completed optimization runs and user profiles are persisted to a SQLite database (
user_db.sqlite) so results survive page navigation and restarts.IMPLEMENTED - 5.10 Port-pair route selection — Scenario builder uses From/To port selectors that auto-fill route distance from presets;
originPort/destinationPortare forwarded to the backend and recorded per run for provenance.IMPLEMENTED - 5.11 Dedicated About & Features portals — dedicated public
/about(mission, Team Egreen Quanta, IMO MEPC.391(81) & FuelEU compliance, architectural pillars) and/features(interactive categorized capability grid, 5-step execution pipeline) with active navigation and standardized footers.IMPLEMENTED - 5.12 Multi-vessel deployment & sticky UI — optimization outputs display rich multi-vessel fleet deployment schedules with aggregate metrics alongside the cost-vs-WtW Pareto frontier; scenario builder features an independent scroll layout with a sticky HUD.
IMPLEMENTED
- Quantum-behaved PSO (delta-potential-well update, no velocity term) for both hyperparameter tuning and multi-objective fleet search, benchmarked honestly against standard baselines.
DESIGN - Mixed-variable decoder with constraint repair — a continuous
[0,1]genotype is decoded into activation / speed / fuel / shore-power and repaired to feasibility.IMPLEMENTED - Separation of concerns — a validated physics/ML predictor drives the loop; ML models are validated separately and cross-vessel transfer is reported candidly.
DESIGN - Auditability as a feature, not an afterthought — sourced lifecycle factors, labeled data, reproducible seed-pinned runs.
DESIGN
| Role | Real-world equivalent | What they get |
|---|---|---|
| Fleet planner | Shipping / logistics operations | Feasible, cost/GHG-optimal deployment plans |
| Sustainability lead | ESG / compliance officer | Well-to-wake GHG per plan, carbon-price sensitivity |
| Analyst / researcher | Operations research | Reproducible benchmarks, provenance, exportable results |
| Evaluator / judge | SIH reviewer | Transparent claims, verifiable metrics, live demo |
flowchart TD
A[Scenario input<br/>cargo, deadline, fleet, fuels] --> B[Validation]
B --> C[Feature layer]
C --> D[Fuel prediction<br/>per candidate]
D --> E[Emissions & cost engine<br/>WtW GHG + INR cost]
E --> F[Constraint check & repair]
F --> G[MO-QPSO / NSGA-II search]
G --> H[Pareto frontier]
H --> I[Balanced recommendation<br/>+ extremes]
I --> J[Benchmark & provenance report]
flowchart TB
subgraph FE[Frontend · React + Vite on Vercel]
UI[Dashboard pages] --> API[api.js data layer<br/>mock ↔ live toggle]
end
subgraph BE[Backend · FastAPI on Render]
R[Routers: predict / optimize / benchmarks / metadata]
R --> ENG[Engine core]
ENG --> P[Predictor]
ENG --> EM[Emissions & cost]
ENG --> OPT[MO-QPSO / NSGA-II]
R --> ST[Results & provenance store]
end
API -->|/api over HTTPS| R
The frontend talks to the backend only through /api (same-origin reverse proxy,
or VITE_API_BASE for a cross-host backend). See §17 and the
deployment handbook.
| Layer | Technology | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Backend API | FastAPI, Uvicorn | REST endpoints, async request handling |
| ML / numerics | NumPy, Pandas, scikit-learn, XGBoost, SHAP | Prediction, feature engineering, explainability |
| Optimization | Custom MO-QPSO, NSGA-II / MOPSO baselines | Multi-objective search + benchmarking |
| Frontend | React, Vite, Recharts | Dashboard, charts, scenario builder |
| Data | CSV / Parquet / JSON; EU MRV, ERA5, GFW, VED, GLEC | Training & lifecycle factors (§11, §18) |
| Deploy | Render (API) + Vercel (static SPA) | Hosting |
① Fuel prediction
- MRV fleet-intensity model (XGBoost, QPSO-tuned, log-target): chronological 2025 holdout R² ≈ 0.26, MAE ≈ 28.9 kg/nm
VERIFIED METRIC. The ~0.25 ceiling is honestly attributed to the absence of a usable ship-size feature in MRV (documented in model-versions). - Operational power model (speed-resolved, Shifts benchmark; validated on real FuelCast vessels): in-domain R² ≈ 0.98, shifted R² ≈ 0.95, sMAPE ≈ 5%
VERIFIED METRIC. This is the strong predictor. - A physics baseline (MRV-calibrated) drives the optimizer loop so results are valid cross-vessel; ML models are validated separately.
DESIGN
② Emissions & cost engine — deterministic, versioned, unit-tested. Sourced lifecycle factors (IMO MEPC.391(81), FuelEU conventions, GLEC/DEFRA for road, CEA grid factor for India). Computes WtT/TtW/WtW GHG, fuel + shore-power cost in INR, and an optional GHG cap. Every factor carries a provenance tag. IMPLEMENTED
③ Fleet optimizer (MO-QPSO) — quantum-behaved PSO: x' = p ± α·|mbest − x|·ln(1/u) (delta-potential-well, no velocity term). Mixed-variable decoder (activation/speed/fuel/shore-power), constraint repair, Pareto archive. Benchmarked against NSGA-II and classical PSO. IMPLEMENTED
Full details: algorithm · mathematical model · architecture · handbook/05-MODELS.
The optimizer core is mode-agnostic. A ship FleetProblem and a road
RoadFleetProblem share the same MO-QPSO / NSGA-II optimizers, selection, and
frontend contract; the UI exposes a Ship/Road toggle. Road uses a physics-informed
surrogate calibrated to VED magnitudes, GLEC/DEFRA WtW factors, India retail fuel
prices, and EV range/grid handling. IMPLEMENTED
The Optimization page presents the three decision objectives together:
- The Pareto chart uses operating cost (INR) on the x-axis and WtW GHG (tCO2e) on the y-axis.
- A line connects plans in cost order to make the trade-off frontier readable; markers remain fuel-colored and selectable so a deployment can be inspected.
- The chart includes all returned fuel pathways in its legend and tooltip, rather than requiring an axis-pair toggle.
- The Balanced selection sliders expose
Originalbaseline andOptimizedTOPSIS values for Fuel, Cost, and WtW GHG. Moving a slider recalculates the optimized value immediately. - Displayed costs are clamped to zero or above; optimization may reduce cost but never presents a negative cost.
The Prediction page includes global/local SHAP, predicted-vs-actual, and residual graphs. The Time holdout and Vessel holdout controls reload distinct deterministic prototype validation samples; live mode uses the recorded prediction scatter artifact and clearly shows an empty-state message if validation points are absent.
Q-Flow/
├── backend/
│ ├── app.py # FastAPI entry (CORS, routers, predictor install)
│ ├── api/ # routers + frontend-contract mappers (compat.py)
│ ├── optimization/ # fleet_engine.py, road_fleet.py, mo_qpso, nsga2
│ ├── prediction/ # physics baseline, XGBoost, power/road models, SHAP
│ ├── emissions/ # sourced factors, lifecycle, cost
│ ├── data/ # MRV/ERA5/GFW loaders, provenance, splits, governance, user_db (SQLite)
│ ├── experiments/ # benchmarks + benchmark_service (live, cached)
│ ├── schemas/ # pydantic request/response (OptimizeRequest incl. origin_port/destination_port)
│ └── tests/ # 66 tests
├── frontend/
│ ├── src/pages/ # Landing, About, Features, Dashboard, Scenario, Optimization, Prediction, Benchmarking…
│ ├── src/lib/ # api.js (mock↔live), store.jsx (mode + sessionStorage), types.js (PORTS, ROUTES, getRouteDistance)
│ ├── src/components/ # charts, layout, landing, shared UI
│ └── vercel.json # SPA rewrites
├── docs/ # architecture, algorithm, model-versions, provenance…
├── handbook/ # authoritative reference — MASTER.md is the single-file edition of all chapters
├── results/metrics/ # recorded benchmark outputs
└── Makefile # install / train / benchmark / test / run
git clone https://github.com/BhavyaSoni21/Q-Flow.git
cd Q-Flow
make install # backend (pip) + frontend (npm) depsNo make? See §16 for the direct commands.
| Scope | Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backend | CORS_ORIGINS |
* (dev) |
Comma-separated allow-list of frontend origins |
| Backend | QFLOW_DB_DIR |
results/store |
Directory for SQLite databases (user_db.sqlite) |
| Backend (ingest, optional) | AISSTREAM_API_KEY, GFW_API_TOKEN |
— | Only for re-collecting raw AIS/GFW data |
| Frontend | VITE_USE_MOCK |
true |
false → call the live backend |
| Frontend | VITE_API_BASE |
/api |
Absolute URL (incl. /api) for a cross-host backend |
VITE_*are build-time — rebuild after changing them. The API serves all routes under/api, soVITE_API_BASEmust end in/api(no trailing slash).
make run # FastAPI backend → http://localhost:8000
make run-frontend # React dev server → http://localhost:5173 (proxies /api → :8000)Direct (Windows PowerShell):
cd backend; python -m pip install -r requirements.txt; python -m pytest -q
python -m uvicorn app:app --port 8000
# new terminal:
cd frontend; npm install; npm run devThe dashboard reads live data when frontend/.env.local has VITE_USE_MOCK=false;
otherwise it shows representative mock data.
Q-Flow deploys as a static SPA on Vercel + a FastAPI service on Render.
Backend (Render web service):
- Start command:
uvicorn app:app --host 0.0.0.0 --port $PORT(must bind0.0.0.0and use$PORT). - Health check path:
/api/health. - Env:
CORS_ORIGINS=https://<your-project>.vercel.app.
Frontend (Vercel project):
- Root directory:
frontend; framework: Vite; output:dist. - Env (Production + Preview):
VITE_USE_MOCK=false,VITE_API_BASE=https://<service>.onrender.com/api. vercel.jsonprovides SPA rewrites so client routes don't 404 on refresh.- Redeploy without cache after changing env (Vite inlines
VITE_*at build time).
If the live fetch fails, the frontend silently falls back to representative mock data (watch the console for
[api] live … failed, falling back to mock). Render's free tier sleeps when idle, so the first request after idle can take ~30–50s.
Full walkthrough: handbook/08-DEPLOYMENT.
- Optimizer comparison (NSGA-II / classical PSO / MO-QPSO): hypervolume mean±std, median/best/worst, feasible %, iters→95% HV, runtime.
IMPLEMENTED - Convergence (HV vs iteration), scalability sweep (10/25/50 units), per-seed box plots.
IMPLEMENTED - The Benchmarking page recomputes from the real engine on demand (cached; Recompute button). Prediction benchmarks retrain live when datasets are present, else serve the committed real results.
DATA-DEPENDENT - Protocol & integrity: benchmark-protocol, data-provenance.
make benchmark # regenerate results/metrics/make test # 66 tests (API, engine, constraints, emissions, prediction, road, data)66 passing VERIFIED METRIC — covering the emissions math, optimizer feasibility,
road fleet, API contract, and data layer. (python -m pytest -q --collect-only → 66 tests collected.)
- MRV fleet-intensity R² is capped (~0.25) by the lack of a size feature; the strong predictor is the operational power model.
VERIFIED METRIC - Synthetic components (e.g. the vessel/vehicle pools, some weather scenarios) are labeled synthetic — not presented as measured data.
DESIGN - Fleet APIs support optional bearer roles; CORS defaults to open for local development. Configure QFLOW tokens and restrict CORS before public exposure (§17, handbook/09).
DESIGN - Road energy uses a physics surrogate calibrated to VED magnitudes, not a per-vehicle trained model in the loop.
DESIGN
- Real-time AIS/weather feeds into the feature layer; port-call scheduling.
- Trained per-mode predictors in the optimizer loop; uncertainty bands on recommendations.
- Authentication, multi-tenant scenarios, and persistent scenario history.
- Expanded fuel pathways and regional grid factors.
Lifecycle factors and data sources are cited in docs/references.md
and tagged inline in backend/emissions/factors.py (IMO MEPC.391(81), FuelEU
Maritime, GLEC/DEFRA, CEA India grid factor, EU MRV, Copernicus ERA5, Global
Fishing Watch, VED). Algorithm basis: Sun et al., quantum-behaved PSO.
Proprietary — All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2026 Q-Flow. This software and
its source, documentation, and assets are proprietary and confidential; no license
is granted. You may not use, copy, modify, distribute, or create derivative works
without prior written permission. See LICENSE. Developed for Smart
India Hackathon (SIH26138).
Predict the fuel. Price the carbon. Optimize the fleet — auditably.