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docs(analysis): move the B tracker to MUT b17908f and GHG FBS edf6e0e - #1208

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@WesIngwersen

@WesIngwersen WesIngwersen commented Nov 6, 2026 •

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View the updated files: tracker and sector log.

Moves the B time series tracker and sector log to GHG FBS v1.0.0_edf6e0e and MUT v1.0.0_b17908f, the pins #1205 merged to main with the electricity flags on. This PR changes docs and curves only.

The figures come from IV_score (spend weights) and sector_deep_dive_triage, run on main at c9b69d94 with this parent branch's chart code, which is the content of the parent now that it has taken main, with no overrides.

IV score

Commodity Before After Driving factor, after
221100 Electric power 3.23 1.65 B 87%, L 13%
481000 Air transportation 0.40 0.41 B 83%, L 17%
211000 Oil and gas extraction 0.35 0.35 B 52%, L 48%
484000 Truck transportation 0.31 0.30 B 60%, L 40%
325110 Petrochemicals 0.25 0.28 B 66%, L 34%
324110 Petroleum refineries 0.26 0.25 B 52%, L 48%
531ORE Other real estate 0.23 0.23 B 43%, L 57%
331110 Iron and steel 0.16 0.23 B 48%, L 52%
325190 Other basic organic chemicals 0.23 0.18 B 61%, L 39%
325211 Plastics and resin 0.21 0.18 B 59%, L 41%

What changed in the tracker

  • Table: new scores, driving factors and vintages. 331110 joins the list. 325190 and 325211 stay at the end, marked below 0.2, so their issue links aren't lost.
  • Sector log: new B, E, E source and q values and curves for all ten sectors, and new largest A cells.
  • 221100: the E, q, A and L explanations and the conclusion are written for the current build. The explanations from feat(nowcast): start the electricity accounting residual pathway #1199 are on main but not on this branch, so they are brought over and updated.
  • Conclusions: the provisional conclusions are updated to the current figures. The air write-up keeps its text, with a note on the vintages it was worked through on.
  • Status table: adds split, which the 221100 row uses.

For review

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

New scores, driving factors, curves and conclusions on the pins #1205 merged.
Brings electric power's explanations over from main and adds iron and steel to
the list.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@WesIngwersen
WesIngwersen marked this pull request as draft November 6, 2026 16:42
WesIngwersen and others added 4 commits November 6, 2026 11:44
Keeps this branch's two tracker files, which carry the current figures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…arlier findings

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…production

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…anic chemicals

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@bl-young

bl-young commented Nov 6, 2026

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should we pull this in?

WesIngwersen and others added 4 commits November 6, 2026 22:13
N_d and EIA's rate both end at 0.77 of 2017 and differ by at most 0.8 points in
any year's change, so the tracker marks the trend justified. The level of q stays
open. The coal figures now use power-sector burn rather than receipts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ain language

Adds where output sits above EIA revenue, by buyer, and moves the test against
EIA's CO2 per kWh into the sector's table.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Describes trends in plain words on the current sector entries, and takes commits,
versions and PRs out of them. Those stay in the tracker.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2 participants