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fix(ghg): attribute UMD tables with new UMD sources - #1212

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cb_replace_epa-tables
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cb_replace_epa-tables

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@catherinebirney catherinebirney commented Nov 6, 2026 •

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cc:
Closes: #1203

What changed? Why?

Testing

  • Ran new 3-14-only FBS series (2017–2024) and compared to current pinned version, national NEU total unchanged vs pin v1.0.0_edf6e0e every year (92.0 → 96.0 Mt).
  • Sector split stays near the pin (fertilizer / iron ore / steel already in the fix(ghg): steady the non-energy use split across inventory and MECS years (#1200) #1201 ballpark). Largest remaining moves vs edf6e0e: petrochemicals ~+2 Mt in 2023–24; other basic organic ~−2 Mt most years after 2018.

Impact of replacing UMD T 3-14 attribution method

UMD_GHGIA_T_3_14 Mt CO2e — new

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
All sectors 92.0 99.3 88.6 83.7 89.9 89.5 89.6 96.0
32511 petrochemicals 28.7 31.1 27.9 27.7 37.6 38.2 39.6 42.4
325211 plastics and resins 14.0 15.9 14.5 14.7 17.0 17.9 19.4 20.8
32519 other basic organic 18.8 20.3 18.0 17.4 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.9
32531 fertilizer 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
32518 other basic inorganic 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8
21221 iron ore mining 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
3311 iron and steel 9.3 10.5 8.9 6.2 6.3 3.9 4.5 4.8

UMD_GHGIA_T_3_14 Mt CO2e — pinned v1.0.0_edf6e0e

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
All sectors 92.0 99.3 88.6 83.7 89.9 89.5 89.6 96.0
32511 petrochemicals 29.8 32.8 28.5 28.1 37.6 37.3 37.5 40.2
325211 plastics and resins 13.8 15.9 14.6 14.9 17.4 18.4 19.2 20.6
32519 other basic organic 17.8 19.1 19.9 19.4 12.6 13.5 13.9 14.9
32531 fertilizer 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
32518 other basic inorganic 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0
21221 iron ore mining 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
3311 iron and steel 10.4 11.2 7.9 4.8 6.8 3.5 4.7 5.0

delta new − edf6e0e (Mt)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
All sectors +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0
32511 petrochemicals -1.1 -1.7 -0.6 -0.4 +0.0 +0.9 +2.1 +2.2
325211 plastics and resins +0.2 +0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 +0.2 +0.2
32519 other basic organic +1.0 +1.2 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 -2.1 -1.9 -2.0
32531 fertilizer -0.1 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 -0.1 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0
32518 other basic inorganic +0.0 +0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
21221 iron ore mining +0.0 +0.0 +0.1 +0.1 +0.0 +0.0 -0.1 +0.0
3311 iron and steel -1.1 -0.7 +1.0 +1.4 -0.5 +0.4 -0.2 -0.2

@catherinebirney catherinebirney changed the title Cb replace epa tables fix(ghg): attribute UMD tables with new UMD sources Nov 6, 2026
@catherinebirney
catherinebirney marked this pull request as ready for review November 6, 2026 20:49
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Non-energy use split: replace EPA GHGI Tables 3-25/3-25b with UMD Table 3-15 × Annex A3-5

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